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At the beginning of the season, I gave my predictions for the upcoming baseball season. Nearly halfway through the year, let's see how I'm doing:
American League
Cy Young: Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
What I said then: The talent has always been there, but Beckett always seems to get injured. His ERA last year wasn't great, but he had an insane strikeout-to-walk ratio. With so much depth in the rotation, Beckett will be the star of stars. Predicted stat line: 22-6 with a 3.14 ERA.
Beckett so far: 8-3 with a 3.74 ERA.
Analysis: The flame-throwing right-hander had a shaky start to the season, but has been nails in the past month or so. I like where we're headed with this one. The ERA probably won't get that low, and he will have to really pick it up to win that many games, but Beckett should definitely be in the Cy Young conversation.
If I could do it over: Zack Greinke. He's been insane, but who would have guessed that?
MVP: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
What I said then: He's buried in small-market Minnesota, but Morneau is durable, in the prime of his career (age 28) and an RBI machine. Expect Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis and B.J. Upton to put up big numbers, but if Minnesota makes the playoffs (like I said they will) Morneau will win the award. Predicted stat line: .304 average with 33 home runs and 126 RBIs.
Morneau so far: .322 with 15 HR and 57 RBIs.
Analysis: (This would be me patting myself on the back.) He is on pace to finish with a season exactly as I guessed, although the average is higher. Youkilis and Teixiera are having good years, but Upton has been brutal, so I was three for four on those picks. If Joe Mauer wasn't hurt for a month, he would be the runaway leader right now.
If I could do it over: I'll stick with Morneau. There are a bunch of candidates (throw Evan Longoria and Miguel Cabrera on the list) but he's having a fantastic season.
Rookie of the Year: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
What I said then: Everyone's on the Matt Weiters train for this one, but it's not as easy as it looks heading to the majors for the first time, especially at the catcher position. While Price was sent down to begin the year, he will be in the rotation shortly and begin to dominate. Predicted stat line: 13-5 with a 3.65 ERA.
Price so far: 1-2, 4.45 ERA.
Analysis: He was down in Triple-A much longer than I expected and has been hit-and-miss since his call-up. Price has dominant stuff, but he still hasn't put it all together yet. Weiters is coming on, and I'm guessing he does take the award.
If I could do it over: OK, I'll get on the Weiters train.
Losing the 'Spect (from prospect to pro): Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
What I said then: This is a made up category for a player that I think will make the jump from heralded prospect to difference-maker in a big league uniform. Jones has always had the tools, and was the key piece when the Orioles traded Erik Bedard. Jones hit .270 with nine homers and 57 RBIs last season in his first regular action with a major league club. Expect him to really come into his own this season. Predicted stat line: .288 average with 17 homers, 75 RBIs and 23 stolen bases.
Jones so far: .309 with 12 HR, 43 RBIs and five stolen bases.
Analysis: Adam 'Don't call me Pac-man' Jones has been great thus far. I thought he'd get a few more stolen bases and hit for less power, but the season has been quite impressive. Baltimore's lineup is very, very good. If the Orioles can find a way to get some pitching, they could actually be a competitive ballclub in a few years.
If I could do it over: Jones was spot-on.
Biggest bust: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
What I said then: You hear that? Yupp, Father Time is ticking. Jeter's 35 years old all of a sudden, and his numbers continue to diminish. He still hit .300 last season, but he stole only 11 bases and hit 11 home runs, both close to career lows. He is becoming a defensive liability and losing his offensive skills. They can't even bat him in the two-hole anymore because he grounds into too many double plays. Everyone loves Jeet so it won't become an issue, but just keep an eye on his stats as the year goes on. It won't be pretty. Predicted stat line: .293 average with 10 home runs, 59 RBIs and eight stolen bases.
Jeter so far: 301 with nine home runs, 30 RBI and 15 stolen bases.
Analysis: Umm, whoops. So I guess Jeter isn't done yet.
If I could do it over: Carlos Quentin. He's been a hurt a bunch anyways, but I'm convinced last year was an abberation. He has 25-30 home run power, but his average will always be in the .250-.260 range.
National League
Cy Young: Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres/???
What I said then: Let's face it. Peavy is going to be on a different team come July. Obviously, for this prediction to work, he will have to be traded to an N.L. team. I have a feeling he will (to the Cubs), and he will pitch unbelievably after the move. As long as Peavy stays afloat in his three months of purgatory, he will claim this award. Predicted stat line: 17-8 with a 2.64 ERA.
Peavy so far: 6-6 with a 3.97 ERA and one vetoed trade.
Analysis: Missed on this one, too. Peavy was good but not great, and then he turned down the trade to the White Sox. Then he got hurt. Now he's not going to be traded and he won't win the Cy Young. Oy.
If I could do it over: Danny Haren.
MVP: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
What I said then: It's basically a toss-up between him and Pujols, but I believe the Marlins will surprisingly stay in contention until August, and that will give Han-Ram a boost. He's a five-tool player playing at an elite level. Expect ungodly numbers from him this season. Predicted stat line: .315 with 36 home runs, 105 RBIs and 22 stolen bases. Yikes.
Han-Ram so far: .329 with 10 homers, 40 RBis and nine stolen bases.
Analysis: Very good numbers, but not quite MVP-like. Ramirez has been steady in the middle of the order for Florida, but he hasn't been the best player in the National League.
If I could do it over: Nothing wrong with Hanley's season, but Pujols (.328, 26 HR, 70 RBI) has been otherworldly. I'm switching.
Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins
What I said then: You see? This is why I like Florida. Not only do they have the MVP, they have one of the top candidates for Rookie of the Year. There isn't any pressure in Florida (no fans = no pressure) so Maybin can quietly put up numbers to secure the award. Predicted stat line: .273 average with 12 home runs, 48 RBIs and 18 stolen bases.
Maybin so far: .202, one homer, three RBIs, one stoleb base.
Analysis: It's hard to win Rookie of the Year when you get sent down to the minors after one month. If it's any consolation, no one among the National League rookies have been great.
If I could do it over: Tommy Hanson.
Losing the 'Spect (from prospect to pro): Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies
What I said then: In 333 at-bats last year, Iannetta hit 18 home runs and knocked in 65 runs for the Rockies. His average (.264) was mediocre, but an on-base percentage of .390 is very, very good. Expect some pretty impressive numbers from the newest Coors Field bomber. Predicted stat line: .258 with 28 home runs and 92 RBIs.
Iannetta so far: .237 with 10 homers and 26 RBIs.
Analysis: Not too impressive. And I'm commenting both about Iannetta and my woeful predictions.
If I could do it over: Justin Upton.
Biggest bust: Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals
What I said then: His numbers from last year - .299 average with 37 homers and 113 RBIs - were great. I have no idea how. Batting next to Pujols helps, but this has Rick Wilkins syndrome (click on the link and check out his 1993 season, then his subsequent career) written all over it. I don't know anything about Ludwick, but he has to come down from the stratosphere he was in last season. He might still hit some homers and drive in runs, but not at the same rate of '08. Predicted stat line: .254 average with 21 home runs and 76 RBIs.
Ludwick so far: .235 with 11 homers and 38 RBIs.
Analysis: I did pretty good here. Ludwick's going to get some runs batted in if he's in the middle of thar lineup, but otherwise he has been decidedly mediocre.
If I could do it over: Ludwick.
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